THE United
Nations (UN) projects that the world economy will grow by slightly more
than 3% this year, but also cautions of factors that could threaten the
smooth slowdown of economic growth that has evolved over the past year. I-Net Bridge
In its report, World Economic
Situation and Prospects 2006, the UN says growth is expected to slow in
most of the industrial world in 2006 - registering 3,1% in the US, 2,1%
in Europe and 2% in Japan - while developing countries expand at a rate
of 5,6%.
China and India remain the world’s most dynamic
economies and the rest of East and South Asia is expected to increase
by more than 5%.
Latin America lags behind with a growth rate of 3,9% as its largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, struggle.
The African continent’s economic expansion should remain solidly above 5%, according to the report.
Prepared in part by the UN department of economic and
social affairs (DESA), the report shows that the economies of the least
developed countries - buoyed by higher commodity prices - will grow by
6,6% in the coming year.
On the other hand, any scenario leading to a collapse in
commodity prices would adversely affect these 50 nations, the report
said.
One of the major phenomenon sapping the prospects for
balanced growth in the world economy is the so-called "investment
anaemia," UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs
José Antonio Ocampo told a news conference in New York on Tuesday at
the report’s launch.
"It’s universal, with the exception of China," Ocampo
said. "We point out that a major challenge is to recover investment in
many parts of the world."
He added that greater investments by corporations and
governments in machinery, new factories and infrastructure could help
iron out the global financial imbalances that might undermine economic
stability.
The report states that one of the gravest dangers to the
world economy’s stability may lie in these global financial imbalances
as the US’ current account deficit totals $800bn while Japan, emerging
Asian and major oil- exporting countries amass saving surpluses of
$100bn to $200bn each.
Since the US is a major producer of capital goods, a
surge in investment by other countries in the machinery needed to power
factories or build bridges, for example, would help close the country’s
current account deficit by increasing US exports.
"The US has been running a deficit and it has generated the impression that it is not a serious problem," Ocampo said.
"But we point out that the impression is deceiving. The risk, although low, has very high costs."
Foreign investors help US officials cover the country’s
current account deficit by investing in US dollar-denominated assets.
If foreign investors lose confidence in the US economy, they could pull
their money out and contribute to a financial crisis.
Ocampo also called for greater coordination of
macro-economy policy among key industrial and developing nations. He
said the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was created to
protect global financial stability, should play a central role in
helping nations coordinate their macro-economic policies.
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