GROWTH in
manufacturing activity recovered in December, but the sector remains
under threat from strength in the rand, an independent survey showed
today. Reuters
The country’s seasonally adjusted
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 points in December,
ending four consecutive months of declines that drove it to the neutral
level of 50 in November, sponsor Investec said.
Manufacturing is the biggest sector in SA’s economy
after financial services, accounting for 16.4% of gross domestic
product.
A pronounced slowdown would hit official plans to spur
faster growth in Africa’s biggest economy and create more jobs to
reduce an unemployment rate of around 26%.
"The renewed strength of the rand currency will reduce
the competitiveness of the local manufacturing sector," said Andre
Roux, head of fixed income at Investec Asset Management.
"Although the buoyant growth and demand conditions in
the wider economy bode well ... currency strength has some dampening
effect on the sector’s growth trajectory," he said in a statement.
The rand scaled a fresh eight-month peak of 5.9660
against the retreating dollar on Monday, taking its gains against the
greenback so far this year to more than 6.%
The currency’s sustained strength over the past few
years has already been blamed for a sharp widening of the current
account deficit - its broadest measure of trade - which swelled to
record levels in the third quarter of 2005.
"Manufacturing will be under pressure because of
currency strength, it will hold the sector back and put the handbrake
on keeping growth from reaching its potential level," Brait economist
Colen Garrow said.
The economy is likely to have expanded by 5% last year —
its fastest pace since 1984 — and the government wants to raise growth
to 6% by 2010.
Some of the key components of the Investec PMI index
retraced some of their sharp November declines, including business
activity, new sales orders and employment.
"This indicates that manufacturing activity picked up
somewhat in December following the slowdown in the preceding months,"
said Investec’s Roux.
But he pointed out that the index remained well below a
peak of 60 hit in July 2005, while the recovery in the employment
indice was less than convincing.
"There seems to be some evidence of further contraction
of the labour market, albeit at a slower rate compared to November,"
Roux said.
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