Is the US winning its "war on terror"? As it enters
into its fifth year, trying to measure success, failure or even just
progress remains stubbornly difficult. And the record for 2005 provides
few easy answers.
The US administration used to talk about how it had killed or captured two-thirds of al-Qaeda's pre-9/11 leaders.
President Bush has been on TV defending the US role in Iraq
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But that statistic looks increasingly irrelevant when al-Qaeda has
itself evolved and mutated, with a new generation of militants and
leaders over the past few years - as well as the problem that the best
known al-Qaeda leaders remain at large.
The battle is now increasingly being recognised as an ideological one rather than a manhunt.
But if that is true, how do you measure recruitment,
radicalisation and the broader factors which might help judge the state
of play in the ideological struggle?
Some of the brutal tactics from al-Qaeda-related groups
in Iraq, as well as the body count of innocent Muslims in attacks in
places like Amman, may have dented some of the appeal of al-Qaeda's
ideology to moderate Muslims.
However, reports of US abuses of detainees in Iraq and
elsewhere have done the US no favours in trying to win people to its
cause.
The furore over the alleged "rendition" and torture of
suspects that has arisen in Europe at the end of 2005 also risks
undermining the kind of international co-operation that is vital in
defeating terrorism and fracturing crucial alliances.
Differing strategies
European governments are also looking inwards at their
own problems in trying to work out how to increase security whilst not
alienating their own Muslim communities, who are often angry over what
is happening in Iraq.
Zarqawi's rise highlights how central Iraq is to the "war on terror"
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Different strategies between Europe and the US are becoming
increasingly evident, although it is not clear which strategies are
more effective. Differences in approach are growing even between the
closest of allies.
Parts of the UK government are thought to be quite
uncomfortable with some aspects of US counter-terrorist strategy,
including the widespread use of mass detention as a policy in Iraq, as
well as the use of so-called "extraordinary rendition" in individual
cases which the UK has tried to keep at arms length from.
From al-Qaeda's side, Osama Bin Laden has
not been heard from since a broadcast on the eve of the US elections in
November 2004, and in the eyes of many observers, the past year has
seen him eclipsed by the rise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
Although Zarqawi officially put himself under al-Qaeda's
banner, his precise relationship with the al-Qaeda leadership is the
subject of considerable debate, with many analysts believing that
relations are as much competitive as they are co-operative.
Jordan's king called for a war on extremists after Amman attacks
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Zarqawi's rise to prominence is an indication of just
how central Iraq has become to the war on terror. It may not have been
before the war, but it is certainly now the central front.
It is also a "black hole" in the words of French
anti-terrorism Judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere, drawing in jihadists from
around the world to fight, including increasing numbers from Europe -
December saw the first female European Muslim convert take part in a
suicide attack.
The question will be: what happens next? How many of
these people will take the skills, militancy and networks of
relationships they have developed in Iraq back to their home countries?
Will Iraq thereby play the same role that Afghanistan
did in the 1980s as the breeding ground for a new generation of
militants? Iraq's neighbours are likely to be the first to see any
signs of this, and Saudi Arabia will be especially closely watched for
signs of Iraq returnees causing trouble.
Future threat
The London bombings on 7 July killed 52 people
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Al-Qaeda may have evolved, but the ability of the core
leadership to plan and direct attacks remains a fundamental unanswered
question.
The investigation continues into London's 7 July bombings, with the trail still leading into Pakistan.
Here it is suspected - but not yet confirmed - that
evidence will be found to show that there was some form of
international direction or support for the attacks.
But whether such attacks are planned directly by
al-Qaeda's leadership or not, 2005 has shown that the danger from
terrorism remains global, with serious attacks across a wide
geographical spread from London to Amman to Bali.
Next year is unlikely to be any different.
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